Some signals

We cannot yet say the countdown of Modi’s fascist regime has begun. It has not acquired the necessary pace, force, momentum to set the time schedule. Some signals are available about Modi losing grip over his power and its misuse. That is the beginning of the end of fascism.

Much hope for the opposition parties was not due to their own efforts but due to failures, arrogance, the overconfidence of the Modi regime, the usual traits of a fascist. The first turning point that emerged over the last 7 years was the peaceful democratic protest against CAA.

But the Covid gave some breathing space to the Modi regime and the movement lost its momentum. The hopes again revived and kept alive by farmers’ protests when the election schedule and the recent 2nd wave of the Covid stole some of its limelight. But the ruthlessness of rulers continued.

The outbreak of Covid pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities, ignorance, inefficiencies, idiocies of Modi & Co. While the people are suffering the worst effects of Covid, Modi regime was over smart to push bills promoting crony capitalism at the cost of farmers using Covid mask.

People are already finding it difficult to breathe even without Covid infection due to demonetisation, GST, oil price, unemployment etc. Covid 1st wave and now the 2nd one broke their backbone and confidence. All their pain, anger are piling up against Modi waiting to explode.

Modi is losing credibility in the Hindi belt, the traditional supporters of BJP where he got the maximum number of seats. How much he is going to lose now, is the question. His gimmicks and gestures are getting exposed totally with everyone including the common man ridiculing him.

All the political parties, groups, supporters, people associated with Modi, Shah and those who have directly or indirectly endorsed, helped their unethical ways and acts have also lost credibility. That includes media, independent institutions, courts, bureaucrats etc.

Dynamics may change with the political scenario in states. The composition of the opposition, their unity and strength may change. The major factor and contributor to Modi’s wins including the 2019 Lok Sabha elections is the failure of the opposition to present a credible alternative.

Shrill cries and sheepish smiles of Modi & Co are not indicative of their confidence but only exposing their diffidence and losing grip. When it becomes more apparent, the opposition will vaccinate themselves against Modi and get together to eradicate this political virus.

The realpolitik

It is really incomprehensible and unrealistic for Modi, Shah to tolerate all efforts needed to keep up with this farce of democracy, elections, campaigning, seeking votes, when the Kingdom with all powers are in their hands with people begging for mercy & are ready to oblige.

They are expending all their patience to wait unjustifiably for the total conversion into a fascist state. But they are quite adept at adapting to all situations. They are trying to manage with their version of Democracy or Realpolitik, based on practicality not on morality.

Modi, Shah are shrewd enough to understand that when they are in the business of democracy, they are to push the right buttons at the right time to make optimum use of resources to manufacture the majority. They cannot be in a hurry as they are to deal with people in addition to EVMs.

After having a setback in the Hindi heartland, they wanted to increase their footprints, hold in the peripheral lands. They are ruling in Assam and have set their platform in West Bengal in 2019. Now they are trying their raw hands to control, dominate the bulls in Dravidian land.

Modi/ Shah/ BJP/ RSS had no chance in Kerala at the outset. In God’s own country devils have no place. In addition to this, Congress has an unshakable root there along with left parties. It is not West Bengal where Mamata succeeded in root transplantation of Congress and left.

Honestly, Modi and Shah were trying to push hard and deliver increased numbers. Unfortunately in Kerala, everyone will raise questions. Logic and sense prevail. That is ‘Literacy magic’. Next time they can try the impossibles of blood transfusions, voter migration from the north.

The failures in one state do not preclude, prohibit the use of their traditional divisive agenda on caste, religion or any factor they can invent. What is the use of leaving any trick aside or any stone unturned? They now have the power, money, men, machinery. If not now when?

Most of the Tamilnadu politicians may look outwardly simple & humble but are deceptively shrewd. They will bend, bow, crawl & fall at the feet and seat of power. Maybe they are testing their ground; may pull the red carpet underneath. This is the Tamil version of realpolitik.

BJP started the bargain with AIADMK for 100 seats ended up with 20 and may not win even 1. That is the sample of their strength and credibility despite all the hype and hooplas, frenzied activities for long before the elections. Even BJP men were afraid of using Modi’s name.

The height of this unadulterated nonsense is BJP is still talking about the NDA govt in Tamilnadu and BJP government in Puducherry. That they are shameless, heartless, merciless is telling the obvious. That is their business and that is their blood. We have to bear with it.

But Modi, Shah turn out to be so crude and rude that they expect everyone at their beck and call; a septuagenarian CM aspirant was asked to visit Delhi to pay obeisance, to impose BJP’s choice of CM candidate, to bargain for a seat or two. However, the leader did not oblige.

They want to add another BJP ruled state by hook or crook. They punished the people of Puducherry for 5 years with de facto Governor’s rule and a police state. They now want to impose a BJP CM when they could get only 2.4% in the last 2016 Assembly elections.

One has to wait and see how many out of 9 BJP candidates contesting are going to win when independents with overt or covert blessings of other NDA partners are on the field. That is the realpolitik of the ‘weaker politicians’ who are glued to the ground in a small state.

The vote transferability is doubtful while Shah has the BJP version of seat convertibility via EVMs, money, threats by all means. For them, it is fun, like playing with shares, market, money but should know they are dealing with people who still have some values and self-respect.

Modi is not invincible.

The cancer cells of Hindutva were reared, nurtured in the Hindutva lab of Gujarat in 2002. They could easily identify, produce and deploy 2 ‘gems’ now ruling the country. They can rub, cut, tear, shear anyone and anything. These ‘robots’ are made and meant to be heartless.

RSS needed a mask of Vajpayee. But they removed the mask way back in 2002  for their experiments in Gujarat. The virus naturally does not need a mask as it is counterproductive when its agenda is to exponentially grow into a full-blown communally divisive, destructive disease.

Incidentally and accidentally India had a breathing space between NDA 1 and 2. Otherwise, the transition to fascism would have been complete long back. It takes time to groom villains as heroes. They needed an incubation period and carriers like Anna Hazare to spread the disease.

Once in power, they started their experiments with errors, terrors, horrors. They were natural symptoms of cancer within. The 2 heroes were never short of energy to ensure their growth. The media, independent institutions, courts succumbed to their political manoeuvres and games.

Their crudity, arrogance, absurdities were in full flow. The untruths, illegalities, moralities were never a hindrance in their world of realpolitik. Still, they are not invincibles but Modi, Shah love this perception floated around even by the opposition supporters and people.

Many tend to brand people becoming communal and claim that the divisions and hatred ensured the electoral victories of Modi. It may be true in some areas/ pockets. But India has not become Gujarat. If Modi’s failures build up frustrations, Gujarat may join India’s secular stream.

Multiple reasons contribute to successes and failures. We cannot see anything in isolation. We cannot ignore any of them and should give appropriate weightage for each factor. The absence of a viable alternative, EVMs, media, so-called independent institutions helped Modi’s wins.

The successes also teach lessons. We neither learn from our defeats nor successes. The wins in Chhattisgarh, MP, Rajasthan, Punjab, Jharkhand, partial successes in Karnataka, Maharashtra, gains in Gujarat, Haryana, failures in Goa, Manipur, Bihar have many positive and negative signals.

Have they analysed? The media reports only reflect that proper discussions and a dispassionate analysis are nonexistent. The structural weaknesses of Congress, absence of cooperation, coordination to discuss and evolve appropriate decisions contributed to the air of negativity.

The truth is the entire opposition parties, groups, supporters, people who are aware of the monumental failures of the Modi regime and the entire support system, have failed to fully explore, analyse, present and fight against them in a way that is very much legally possible.

Still, negativity is floating around. If Modi is invincible, how some of the opposition wins, gains were possible. The only positivity was contributed by Modi’s failures, protests by CAA, farmers showing indomitable spirit. Modi is not invincible. We should change our mindset.